Jul 29 2007
Tomorrow Never Knows
I've not really voiced this publicly before, but one of the many, many reasons I decided to leave the United States in favor of traveling abroad in various less-developed, and less oil-dependent, countries is an underlying fear — call it a gut feeling — that all the pleasantries we've come to know and love in the Western World will disappear in less time than we are currently aware, or are prepared to accept.
Among the factors leading to this "gut feeling" is not only the unbelievable selfishness and arrogance of the general U.S. population, but also the socio-economic, religious, geopolitical and environmental issues that now dominate our world.
Now add to these problems the underlying element of "Peak Oil" — which will be manifesting itself soon, if it hasn't already (ASPO predicts that oil production will peak this year) — and you've got the recipe for an utter societal breakdown.
Due initially to my prior profession as an international and maritime attorney, I've been aware of this issue for several years now. However, for the variety of reasons you might expect (or at least theorize), the issue has not really made a dent into the general public consciousness.
That may be changing with the release of the environmental documentary, "A Crude Awakening." This film is fundamentally about how our entire civilization has been built on cheap oil, and how the world has been so thoroughly explored that many experts now beleive there is no new oil out there — none (much like the U.S. itself reached its own "oil peak" in the early 1970's and has gradually come to depend more and more on foreign resources).
The result of this ever-diminishing supply of oil will have effects that, to the modern industrialized world, will make global warming itself seem like a walk in the park.
As aptly described by one commentator, if "An Inconvenient Truth" could be considered "The Wizard of Oz" of environmental documentaries, then "A Crude Awakening" must be considered the "Rosemary’s Baby" of that same genre.
I personally think the movie, and this issue, still won't have a significant or lasting effect on the public consciousness, as there already seems to be a bit of "environmental protection" fatigue after the huge success of Al Gore and "An Inconvenient Truth." Indeed, less than a year after Gore won an Oscar Award for that documentary, the Live Earth concerts were generally recognized worldwide as a failure, and SUV sales in the United States have already resurged.
Regardless, commercial success or failure will not take away from the fact that the oil will soon be gone. And with that, there will be ramifications to the global economy and socio-economic-political structure unseen before in the modern world. And not to sound too much like a fear-mongering apocalyptic survivalist (because God knows I'm not — I mean, really, I'm a lawyer with an internet blog for Christ's sake), but when the gas and electricity prices spike, commodity prices soar, and things start to look a little bit like 'Mad Max," I want to at least have options.
And if I'm starting to sound just a bit too psycho for you right about now, take a look a this trailer for the movie, go read up more about "Peak Oil", and read some of the history (as well as the book, Dark Age Ahead by acclaimed urban-economist, Jane Jacobs). Then, if you still think I'm a bit meshugganah … that's okay, I get that from most women.
A Crude Awakening
Hey Matt,
The history geek in me has long been looking at the the state of the country/world and I see, The Fall of Rome Part II occuring before our very eyes. Our obsession with entertainment and self-gratification is over-whelming and disturbing. Sorry I missed your call last night. Anyway, I put in my home e-mail for you to send stuff to. Love ya brother. Keep the posts coming.
Hey Mikey! No worries about the call - just wanted to try to touch base before I leave again for Indo. With all this oil crap going on, I just really think it’d be beneficial for you to take some time off and come out here for a couple months … an “emergency” of sorts, if ya’ get my drift, son.
Lemme know what your plans for China are later this year. As noted in my next post, I want to try to figure out (at least slightly) where I want to go next - SE Asia, So. Africa, China, Sri Lanka, or other. Love you back, brother. Be good, and say hi to your woman and everyone else for me.
Hmmmmmm. I’d love to see horses come back to my little po-dunk town on the edge of the SF Bay. As it is the horse teams only come out to provide “shuttles” for the hoards of car-tourists who come to downtown events. I feel sorry for the horses who have to pull by all the cars. It must be scary for them.
I enjoyed reading your well-thought out article here. First time I have come across the term “peak oil”. I’m going to watch the film. Now I really want a job where I can ride my bike to work. I wish the bike trails around here had better connectors, especially crossing over the major highway through town. It’s a darn shame because that’s where the local JC is and it seems to me biking and co-ed go together, but not in this town. Ug. I may have my first local civic battle on my hands if I decide to make that my cause.
Hi your message is funny.
I will definitely read your diary..
See ya